.... aaaaand: CUT!

So the transfer window closes again. I fully expect the first rumours of exciting Arsenal transfers in the summer to pop up in newspapers and on their websites tomorrow morning.

But Arséne Wenger has his buying-internationals-under-the-radar-mojo back in the European transfer market! Arsenal's new left back Nacho Monreal arrives for quite a fee, if rumour is to be believed around €10m or more than £8m.

Monreal has nine caps for Spain, and has been impressive in La Liga. At 26, we can expect him to be first choice for a while. Not only may out-of-form André Santos be heading out this summer, Kieran Gibbs may also have reason to feel that his position is threatened.

Throughout Transfer Deadline Day, the Arsenal's Silly Season rumour list has been updated and changed as news have come in. Some of the 150+ "transfer targets" have ended up at other clubs. The vast majority are staying just where they are. One former target (not linked to Arsenal since March last year) ended up in a car park.

Again, the January window and the months before have taught us that transfer rumours are equivalent to the droppings of cattle. It's fantastic to see that Arsenal's only signing wasn't mentioned by any serious news sources - or, indeed, anyone else - before Transfer Deadline Day itself.

Still, fair is fair, and I know of course that some of it is printed in good faith. A lot of professional journalists open up from time to time, admitting that they know they aren't right all the time. A rumour not ending up with a squad number and a Wenger handshake may still have had a core of truth in it.

Jeremy Wilson of the Daily Telegraph sums the Arsenal transfer window up here, as he sees it: Monreal was to be signed in the summer, but Gibbs' injury made Arsenal move today. Luke Shaw of Southampton was preferred, but wouldn't come.

Wilson is of the opinion that Arsenal have failed to sign a striker and a defensive midfielder. The candidates were Klaas-Jan Huntelaar (chose to stay in Germany) and David Villa (made to stay in Spain) up front, while Wenger decided that it wasn't necessary to strengthen the midfield with either of the prime candidates Victor Wanayama or Mohamed Diamé.

Whether or not the Telegraph paints a precise picture, we may never know.

Most Gooners wil be happy with the signing of another left back, but a lot are still disappointed at the perceived net loss of players and quality in the window. However, I have a strange feeling that many of the supporters who are now bemoaning that loanees Marouane Chamakh and Johan Djourou aren't replaced are the very same who complained that 'deadwood' haven't been shipped out of the club fast enough.

You can't have it both ways. Not even in the January window.

This blog will now be hibernating for a short time. A spanking new rumour list for the summer window of 2013 will be up in due course.

A new-look Arsenal midfield?

The least secret signing since... er... Lukas Podolski has been announced by arsenal.com this week. Negotiations were obviously hard; confirmation came late, but this time at least simultaneously by Arsenal and Màlaga.

Santi Cazorla can play right, left and centre, but he's still an attacking midfielder. So are Aaron Ramsey, Tomas Rosicky, Andrei Arshavin and probably Mikel Arteta. Even Jack Wilshere and Abou Diaby - if ever injury-free - would prefer offensive roles in the Arsenal midfield.

The endless influx of creative, attacking midfielders has brought beautiful football to Highbury and the Emirates. But have Arsenal really had a dependable midfield anchor since Gilberto Silva left in 2008?

Emmanuel Frimpong and Francis Coquelin are still considered unpolished for first team duties as anchors. Which leaves Alex Song, now courted by Barcelona.

The Daily Mirror's John Cross has written a column with some excellent points on Song. A player who is expected to balance the midfield, but spent most of last season trying to assist Robin van Persie - and sometimes succeeding, by all means. But Arsenal need an anchor. A season where 49 league goals were let in underlines the fact.

And aren't there so many targets: Yann M'Vila of Rennes is never far from the newspapers, especially not when Cross is the author. Étienne Capoué of Toulouse has been linked, and today he's also replaced M'Vila in the France squad. But even though British media always want to link Frenchmen to Arsenal, the hottest tip is still a loan deal for Nuri Sahin of Real Madrid. A prodigious talent originating at Borussia Dortmund, he only got 10 appearances and one goal for his new club last season.

A short-term deal for Sahin would make sense. For Arsenal, he'd fill in as a defensive midfielder while Frimpong and Coquelin establish themselves. At Real Madrid he has five years left of his contract, and manager José Mourinho is likely to still want him in his future plans.

With Sahin as a designated anchor, Arsenal's formation will be even closer to an old-fashioned 4-3-3 and less like the fashionable and modern 4-2-3-1 of last season. The problem has been that the two defensive midfielders weren't. If Arteta was available, the midfield was balanced. When he wasn't, the whole team's performance suffered, with or without Song as a token anchor.

I believe Arteta's strength is being calm and creative at the same time. A true defensive midfielder would free him up to go forward even more.

But for Sahin to be brought in, Song - or someone else - will have to leave. Arsène Wenger respects the Premier League squad rule.

Neck out, head in noose

Last summer, in the first Silly Season of this blog, I attempted to analyse what really went on. As this blog is about Arsenal transfer rumours, the idea was to contrast all the short-sighted frenzy with more reasoned thought. As if. Second guessing Arsenal and Arsène Wenger isn't easy even for those close to the action.

Still, I'll make an attempt again this year.

The proposed ins and outs are tightly linked. While the press are content to raise the alarm for any name mentioned by (it seems) any source available, it's hard to see the longer lines. But sustainable football is all about long lines, keeping within the budget and composing the squad after making tough choices.

"And even if you lose Nasri, to find the same quality player, you have to spend again the same amount of money. Because you cannot say that you lose the player and you do not replace him."

The priority for Wenger is to keep the players he has. He has always put great emphasis on their ability to play together. Arsenal's tactics are demanding. If well-weighted, visionary passes don't reach their targets, it still looks silly. If the speed of thought aren't on par with the speed of the play, Arsenal look very ordinary.

Any confusion over Samir Nasri is now cleared, it seems, for the club. Even though the rumours still persist, he will be kept in the squad for the coming season. Some of Wenger's quotes in the matter suggest that he compares the risk of no fee for Nasri with any other risk in the transfer market. Nasri can't be easily replaced, not even for £25m. Which player could be bought, contracted and then coached to be as good as soon as August?

"I think Cesc has always been torn between his love for Arsenal that I feel is really genuine and, as well and what you can understand, the desire to play for the biggest team, at the moment, in the world. I think both exist in his head."

The captain's situation is less clear. Arsenal want Cesc Fábregas to stay, and his contract runs for several more years. Last year, Barcelona were told in no uncertain terms to forget any deal. But today, Wenger insinuated that there is contact between the clubs. Whether it's real negotiations or just polite variations of the word 'no', we don't know.

The quote above is from the Q&A Wenger did with the English printed media in Kuala Lumpur at the start of the Asian tour. He implied that Cesc loves Arsenal and Barca both, and is torn between them when sorting out his future. This is very human. A Barca fan since childhood, it's hard to turn down the chance to play there. But as anyone else tempted to switch jobs, Cesc compares the new position with what he's already got.

Last year, Arsenal were clear that no deal was to be made. This summer, the club have been less outspoken. If I dare to interpret: this year Cesc is for sale at the right price. The club doesn't need the constant distraction, especially not with the hard games coming thick and fast from the very start of the season.

But - and this is the major but - Barcelona don't have the money. The Guardian's Matt Scott has written a clear analysis, showing that the club is on the brink of bankrupcy. That might explain all the rumours of constant haggling on a transfer fee for Cesc. And there is no reason for Arsenal, known for their financial clout, to accept selling their captain on the cheap.

Cesc's own silence in the matter have infuriated many Gooners. But like Nasri, Cesc has nothing to gain by going public in any direction. Their fates are not in their own hands, and they risk falling out with fans either way. In fact, Cesc Fábregas has stayed classy throughout, never saying a bad word about any club.

"Everyone sees things in a different way but in these decisions, not everything depends on the player. I am not going to talk about any team but I can't say no to anyone because you never know what could happen in the future. If I said anything else it would be a lie, it would give rise to speculation that is not true."

From the clouds surrounding the captain to the ones obviously outbound. Selling players aren't a lark, the Premier League (and UEFA) rules on squad limitation is a problem, as is the English level of the Arsenal players' wages.

"[Nicklas Bendtner and Manuel Almunia] are talking to other clubs at the moment. I cannot tell you which ones."

These two are definitely looking to leave Arsenal, both frustrated about losing the competition for places. Their time has arrived, but their suitors may be in for hard negotiations. The Spanish sides linked with Almunia aren't likely to be prepared to pay him what he gets today. And Bendtner's high opinion of himself is a threat to any deal. Arsenal risk that the player turns down the contracts offered by the clubs agreeing a transfer fee.

The sale of Gaël Clichy was classic Wenger. A faithful club servant is sold at the right time, like so many others before him. The reason? To let a young English full back blossom.

"The plan for left back is that we have Kieran Gibbs, Armand Traore and Thomas Vermaelen can play there too. So we have what we need."

There is no reason to believe that Clichy will be replaced with a new signing. Gibbs is already an England international. Traore has gone the rounds on loan to gain experience, last season with no lesser club than Juventus. The manager believes they are ready, and it's time for the investments made in them to pay dividends.

The same logic applied for Clichy when Arsenal replaced Ashley Cole. Instead of bringing in someone like Wayne Bridge (heavily linked at the time), Wenger plumped for an internal promotion. It went rather well, don't you think?

In the same vein, Carl Jenkinson looks to be a typical Wenger signing. Cheap, intelligent, skilled and far better than anyone expected (to judge from his - at the time of writing - single Arsenal appearance in Malaysia). Just like Clichy was as an unknown 17-year-old from Cannes, rapidly becoming real competition for England's number 3.

“In open play, we were one of the better defences [last season] but we conceded too many goals on set-pieces and that is where we want to improve this season.”

Most Gooners would agree that the defence is what needs strength in depth, particularly in the middle. This week, Wenger said that coaching rather than signing would solve the problems. It's hard to believe he won't try both.

In Vermaelen, Arsenal have one of the best defenders in the league. Laurent Koscielny and Johan Djourou are set to embark on their second full seasons, and will improve. Sébastien Squillaci is clearly fourth choice, while Kyle Bartley and Ignasi Miquel need to convince the manager soon if they're not to be loaned out again and/or sold like so many before them.

There is room for more competition, but Wenger is keeping his cards to his chest. Despite rumours stretching back weeks and months, Bolton insist that no move is made for Gary Cahill. Interest in Christopher Samba seems to be waning, and no hard facts is known on any bids since January. Bids for Phil Jagielka were reported to be made last summer, and the rumours persist this year. Buying someone from Everton isn't easy, though, their squad is thin as it is.

I believe there are two reasons for Wenger's statement. The first, obvious one, is that any stated interest in any player increases the transfer fee. The second is that frugal Arsenal may want to sell first. Both the wage budget and the 25 player rule limits the intake of players.

Having in a way traded Clichy for Gervinho, the club needs to offload before signing a new player and agreeing wages. If Bendtner, Almunia or even Denilson get new employers, Arsenal will be more active.

It's not like Denilson will leave a gaping hole in the squad. It can be argued that a fit Aaron Ramsey is like Wenger's equivocal 'new signing' in that respect. As the Yankee Gunner puts it, the real problem at Arsenal may be the lack of cover for Alex Song in the midfield anchor role. The only really sizable transfer rumour for that position has been Scott Parker. Expensive and 30, however, he's not anything like a typical Wenger signing. All the noises connecting him with Arsenal also appear to have come from his own representatives.

But like with Gibbs, there might be a chance this or next season for Emmanuel Frimpong and Craig Eastmond to really enter the competition for the anchor role in the first team.

“I realise there is a big chance in front of me and I might not give this No 1 shirt away to anyone else for the next ten to 15 years.”

The words of Wojcech Szczesny, who many already think is the answer to Arsenal's problem position in goal. Looking at his performances last season, as well as the injured Lukasz Fabianski's (yes, really) it doesn't look like Almunia needs replacing. Vito Mannone shouldn't be forgotten either, impressing on loan in the Championship the last few months.

Any media links to any goalkeepers appear more and more strenuous as the Silly Season grows older.

“We worked very hard with these players for years to develop them and now it’s time for us to keep them together.”

As stated, the manager wants to keep the players who are already there. And face it, while it's fun to debate the players' merits on forums, blogs and Twitter, he knows them best. When he decides to keep Andrei Arshavin in spite of his perceived lack of defensive fibres, Tomas Rosicky the non-goal-machine or Abou Diaby the hothead it's beacuse of the continuity. He believes it's valuable in itself.

And at this time of the pre-season Arsène Wenger must be bullish about his team. This is the time where the ghosts of last season's final stretch must be exorcised. The players must believe that they can do it next time. Time will show if he can convince the Arsenal fans as well.

It is a mantra, but it's no less true when spoken today.

"We are a young team and we can only be better."

"We will not do that now"

During the pre-season, the manager has seen enough of promising 18-year-olds Jack Wilshere and Emmanuel Frimpong to call off the search for another defensive midfielder.

After retaining the Emirates Cup, Arsène Wenger said to the press that the two talents had persuaded him they have what it takes:

"... At the start of the season I was not convinced that Wilshere and Frimpong could be central midfielders, defensively. There is a little bit more competition than we expected there to be. We were considering even maybe going on the market for a midfielder. We will not do that now."

More quotes at arsenal.com.

Wenger still concedes that he is a central defender short, but he underlines that it's a question of numbers, not quality. (Of course he wouldn't state in public that the ones he already has are backup players...)

Which means there are still a room or two in the squad; perhaps even for a goalkeeper.

Having said throughout the summer that I don't believe a replacement for Almunia and/or Fabianski will be bought, I have to concede that the Mark Schwarzer saga has made me unsure. However, it seems pretty clear to me that a deal for the Australian international is the only option considered.

After internationals like Igor Akinfeev and Federico Marchetti have virtually begged to join Arsenal this summer, a replacement would be easy to find. If there was "only" a replacement needed. Wenger seems to have so much faith in Wojcech Szczesny (and in a lesser extent in Vito Mannone) that a new signing will only be short term.

Having the experienced Schwarzer around as player/coach does make sense in that respect.

Promoted, not transferred?

In the midst of the frenzy of transfer rumours, it's important to remember that the manager is notorious for (at least) one thing: giving priority to up-and-coming youngsters rather than buying older players for backup. In Arsenal's financial circumstances the last few years it's been important for the continued safe running of the club.

And even though the purse strings are said to have been loosened this summer, there are youngsters coming through who we'll see as important squad members this time next year.

The always impressive Young Guns Blog have a piece here, running the rule over the youngsters who followed the first team squad to Austria for pre-season.

Do follow the link to read the whole piece, but let me just summarise that in their view Håvard Nordtveit looks to have impressed enough for a place among the first-team defenders, Emmanuel Frimpong has done the same in midfield (while climbing above Craig Eastmond in the pecking order) and that Jack Wilshere looks like a genuine contender even for a full strength first team.

Other haven't impressed that much, as the blog will tell you.

But if the manager has drawn some of the same conclusions, Arsenal may well have Frimpong and Nordtveit as backup for Alexandre Song and Denilson in midfield, while the 20 year old Norwegian can also deputise at both centre back and right back.

And not signing Joe Cole or Mesut Özil will only be a good thing for Wilshere's development, and the team wouldn't miss them.

That doesn't end the clamour for a proven defender (or, indeed, a proven goalkeeper), but may calm down the calls for another midfielder to compete with Song for the anchor role.

Speculating on the speculation

An upside of the Cesc rumours is that this blog gets a lot more material than an ordinary Silly Season would bring. Even though it's keeping me up at nights.


At the time of writing, no Arsenal source have been named or otherwise pointed at for any kind of confirmation that Cesc Fábregas is leaving the club. Since there are no real developments to the story, the click wh*res of the Daily Mail and Daily Mirror websites resort to empty speculations on "replacements".


Listen up, people: Arsenal might sign Felipe Melo, like last summer, or Mikel Arteta or Yaya Touré, even though the players don't want to. Heck, why not Michael Carrick? Mark Noble?! Wesley Sneijder? Or perhaps paying Tottenham (!) 30 million pounds (!!) for Luka Modric (!!!) sounds like the realistic deal to expect?


I just didn't think the papers had it in them. Literally.


Elsewhere, in an otherwise excellent column in the Daily Mirror, reporter John Cross suggests it is naïve to doubt the fact that Cesc's made an oral transfer request. Well, he can call me what he wants, but I still want a hard source confirming it before getting all carried away.


Goodness knows there is a lot of away-carrying going on as it is.