Inflation

The 2013 summer rumour list is being updated again. This Silly Season is the busiest I can remember, at least when it comes to speculation about incoming targets.

241 players have been linked with Arsenal after the January window was shut. Only two, Yaya Sanogo and Dan Crawley, have been confirmed as Arsenal signings so far.

The much hyped £70m in Arsenal's so-called war chest is probably the reason for the flurry of rumours. Plenty of European agents want in on the action, both for themselves and on behalf of their clients. But there are also targets where the reports are so ubiquitous that there have to be cores of truth in them.

The single player with the most links to Arsenal is now far and away Gonzalo Higuaín, the Real Madrid striker. Several papers have reported - and are to be belived at your own peril - that personal terms have been reached between Arsenal and the player's representatives quite some time ago. The selling club, however, aren't going to take the deal lying down.

All around Europe, a lot of the major clubs have changed their managers (or head coaches, where that term is more precise). They all want two things: assess the current squad themselves before deciding who goes and who stays, and at the same time get fans on their side with a marquee signing. At the same time, cash-rich owners of some clubs spend like it's the end of the world as they know it. And with the advent of UEFA's Financial Fair Play, it probably is.

Real Madrid wanted Carlo Ancelotti in place before Higuain was sold, and that proved to be a masterstroke. At the start of the summer, the Argentine wasn't in such high demand. Now, however, as a sort of domino featuring the world's leading forwards is afoot, his transfer value has soared.

As Edinson Cavani left Napoli for Paris Saint-Germain, the only ones who would pay off his transfer clause without blinking, the Italian club got their hands on serious dough. How many top strikers are in the market? Not many, but Higuaín is one. Before you know it, Real Madrid raised his asking price from £23-25m to £35-40m (depending on reports). A classic case of what an increase in demand does with the price in a closed market.

Arsenal, not blind to this development, have made ouvertures to Wayne Rooney and Luis Suárez instead. Several reports have suggested that these are just feints designed to scare Real Madrid into selling Higuaín. In that case, it hasn't worked, especially not with Napoli thrown into the mix.

The Rooney rumour is based on the Manchester United and England striker's discontent at Old Trafford, where competition for places seems to have put an end to his preferred, less professional fitness regime. However, for Rooney to choose Arsenal over Chelsea - who have confirmed their interest with a firm, official bid - is nonsensical. Arsenal can't offer the money Chelsea can, nor the (perceived) chances of silverware at this point. I've a slight suspicion that Arsène Wenger keep making noises just to complicate matters for his rivals.

Luis Suárez, however, is another matter. Arsenal are the only firm bidders in this case, but true to form is any bid lower than the selling club's set value. Liverpool are in an even worse situation than Arsenal, who still have Champions League football to offer. Suárez' comments in South American media suggest that a move would appeal to him. For Wenger to sign a striker of questionable temperament and a poor disciplinary record is nothing new. Arsenal supporters would have a hard time taking to the Uruguay striker with his sordid reputation, but fans are fickle. Goals will heal any wounds.

In the media, quite a few of the stories about any of these three "targets" carry a mention of the two others. That is why the number of links after each name has grown so drastically.

Of the three, Suárez looks the more likely, as Higuaín and Rooney will cost more money than prudent Arsenal are prepared to spend under any circumstances. However, the Stevan Jovetic saga is a warning in itself. So closely linked to Arsenal throughout the spring, but now about to leave Fiorentina for Manchester City instead. Again, inflation brought forward by the endless spending of a few major clubs meant that the Montenegrin's asking price went through the roof. Once the oily operators in European football enter a race, Arsenal are put in place.

Suárez may very well end up in Real Madrid instead, perhaps is that even more likely than Arsenal. What will then be left? Wenger clearly wants more competition for Olivier Giroud, and more firepower up front in general.

My prediction - only as good as your own, mind - is that Arsenal will lose out on all the three targets of this frenzied week, like they lost out on Jovetic. However, when all the top names are signed, others will be put on the market.

When Manchester City have signed Jovetic and, as reported, Álvaro Negredo of Sevilla, what then of, say, Edin Dzeko? If, or when, Chelsea secure Rooney, what then of Fernando Torres or Demba Ba? They have all been reported as targets for Arsenal in this Silly Season as in the last fewtransfer windows.

I think Arsenal will end up with the leftovers. But who would you trust more at a car-boot footballer sale than Arsène Wenger?