Who to trust on Cesc

Remember the very un-scientific poll on this blog some time ago? You the readers decided that the BBC was the source most likely to be trusted when it comes to transfer rumours.

Tonight, they report that Cesc Fábregas is on the verge - really - to join Barcelona. The story quotes a 'senior source at the club'. On his Twitter feed, reporter Dan Roan confirms that he has spoken to a member of the Arsenal board.

The BBC understands that the deal is £30m up front and then £5m in performance-related add-ons. Whether or not Cesc waives his £4m so-called 'loyalty bonus' or not isn't clear, and it isn't known if that amount is part of the fee.

What Roan does write is that Arsenal probably were forced to sell for less than the £40m they wanted. They feel they have no choice when the player is adamant to leave.

However, while the deal and the fee is reported with a credible source, the last speculation looks to me like... speculation. It might just as well be that Arsenal now have a replacement ready - but that's me speculating. See how easy it is?

All the funds from Fábregas' transfer will be reinvested in new players, the BBC's Roan is told by his senior source the board member. That would suggest that my speculation on the last part is as good as his.

Others have speculated for a long time. Spanish football writer Guillem Balague has spent quite some time tracking the Fábregas saga, and has been accused of poor journalism more than once by Gooners. However, today his message has been the same that the BBC now reports, even though his sources seem to be on Barcelona's side of the table.

Balague writes on Twitter that the fee will be €40m in total, €29m up front, €6m performance-related and €5m from Cesc's own pockets. The player will have his share of the fee deducted from his Barcelona wages over the time of his contract.

His conclusion is the same as Roan's, that Arsenal have accepted that they won't get the asking price from Barcelona, and need to sell for what fee they can get.

We'll see. As always, confirmation is only when the new player poses with his new club's shirt.